The April CPI figure released on May 13th shows that consumer price inflation jumped sharply from 4.2% in March to 10.3% in April. The result was driven by a large increase in domestic regulated fuel prices (petrol, diesel and paraffin) in late March. These items have a very high weight (over 10%) in the CPI basket, and hence changes in fuel prices have a disproportionate impact on the consumer price index. The new rate of 10.3% was exactly in line with our projections. We expect further increases in inflation in the coming months as higher fuel and transport costs impact on the cost of goods more generally across the economy. We expect inflation to peak between 12% and 13%, depending of course on what happens to international fuel prices.